Category: Tax and Financial News

What to Expect from U.S. Tax Policy in 2026

What to Expect from U.S. Tax Policy in 2026After a whirlwind 2025 that produced what may be the largest tax bill in American history, the coming year looks dramatically different. Tax policy experts are predicting a legislative standstill, a turbulent tax filing season, and lingering questions about how new provisions will work when put into practice.

A Year of Legislative Gridlock

The forecast for 2026 tax legislation is bleak. With Republicans clinging to an impossibly thin House majority of just 218 or 219 seats following recent resignations, passing any significant bills will be extraordinarily difficult. Every single Republican vote would be needed to advance legislation through reconciliation, and as 2025 demonstrated, keeping the caucus unified is no small feat.

While there has been discussion about a potential second reconciliation bill, most observers view this as wishful thinking. If such a bill were to materialize, it would likely focus on technical corrections to lingering Tax Cuts and Jobs Act issues and problems that emerged from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. One notable concern involves accelerated research credits that did not deliver the benefits lawmakers intended because of unexpected interactions with the corporate alternative minimum tax.

The more pressing concern will simply be keeping the government running. A January deadline looms to avoid another shutdown and, given the contentious relationship between House Republicans and Democrats throughout 2025, even basic funding bills face uncertain prospects. With midterm elections consuming attention in the second half of the year, legislative bandwidth for tax policy will be virtually nonexistent.

A Rough Road Ahead for Taxpayers

The 2026 tax filing season is shaping up to be challenging. The IRS has experienced unprecedented upheaval, losing somewhere between 20 percent and 25 percent of its workforce through a combination of voluntary resignations and reductions in force. Many of these departures came from enforcement divisions, though customer service will also feel the impact.

Leadership instability has compounded these problems. The agency cycled through roughly seven commissioners or acting commissioners in 2025 alone. Former Congressman Billy Long was confirmed as commissioner but lasted less than two months before departing under unclear circumstances. The Treasury Secretary has since taken direct oversight of the agency, and an IRS CEO position was created for the first time in the agency’s history. No new commissioner nominee has been put forward, and there is currently no Senate-confirmed chief counsel either.

For taxpayers who need more than basic return processing, this means longer wait times, fewer answered phone calls, and potential delays. Those filing straightforward W-2 returns seeking refunds will likely fare better than individuals or businesses with complicated situations requiring IRS assistance. Audit rates will decline intentionally, as the current administration has committed to scaling back the enforcement emphasis of the Biden years.

The Justice Department’s Tax Division also has been gutted, losing many qualified litigators who previously maintained an exceptional track record against large taxpayers in court. This erosion of enforcement capability may not immediately move voluntary compliance numbers, but continued cuts will eventually catch up with the system.

Unresolved International Questions

The relationship between U.S. tax policy and the global minimum tax framework under Pillar 2 remains unsettled. Republicans declined to include a retaliatory tax provision known as section 899 in last year’s legislation based on an agreement with G20 nations. If that agreement unravels, there may be pressure to revisit retaliatory measures, though passing such legislation with current House margins seems unlikely.

American companies operating internationally could face pressure in foreign jurisdictions if the United States fails to align with Pillar 2 requirements. While many in Washington believe the international minimum tax framework will collapse, the reality on the ground suggests otherwise, and this disconnect might force future legislative action.

Conclusion

The bottom line for 2026: expect a holding pattern on major tax legislation and brace for a difficult filing season as an understaffed and unsettled IRS works to implement last year’s massive changes.

Taxes and Tariffs: The U.S. Response to France’s Digital Tax

How it All Started

Back in July of 2019, France passed what was dubbed a “digital tax” targeting the largest tech companies. Impacting approximately 30 big companies such as Amazon, Google, Facebook and Apple, the tax applies to revenues earned from digital services of companies that earn more than $830 million in total and at least $27.86 million in France. The tax levy is a 3 percent charge on revenue from digital services.

The United States soon responded with threatening 100 percent tariffs on certain classes of French luxury goods, such as wine, champagne, cheese and makeup. These tariffs were estimated to cover more than $2.4 billion in French goods per year.

Responses on Both Sides

French President Emmanuel Macron came out to comment that the digital tax is not intended to be an anti-American move, and that big tech companies of all stripes could be covered by the tax. The criteria that determines who is subject to the digital tax, however, means that essentially only American companies are the ones being taxed.

Some in the United States claim it’s as simple as jealously over our strong technology sector, while others say that the main motivation for the French tax is a need to mitigate burgeoning budget deficits.

President Trump’s Reaction

Rarely one to back down on international trade issues, President Donald Trump criticized the digital tax for unfairly targeting American tech companies, going so far as to call out the European Union as behaving worse than China in its trading relationship with the United States. He reiterated his stance that he’s willing to fight tariffs with tariffs.

Negotiations with the EU

U.S. and European Union officials are negotiating an agreement over taxing big tech, but that didn’t stop the current treasury secretary from threatening more retaliatory tariffs. Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, recently said that the United States will impose new tariffs on French automobile imports if the issue isn’t resolved to America’s satisfaction. He claimed the digital tax is purely arbitrary, hence his random call for taxing automobiles in response. Moreover, Mnuchin called the tax “discriminatory in nature” at the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland.

Taxes and Tariffs on Hold

For now, France is delaying the implementation of its digital tax through the end of 2020 in response to U.S. pressure on threatened luxury goods and automobile tariffs. They aim to come to a resolution before year-end with the Trump administration. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire is optimistic an agreement can be worked out and believes entering a trade war with the United States would be foolish.

The Future

Currently, other European countries, including Britain and Italy, are acting against big tech companies they believe don’t pay their fair share of taxes to their countries. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the United States is willing to go to bat and protect its companies with retaliatory tariffs in these cases as well. For now, not much is settled – but we should see a clearer direction before the year is out.